Probability: Learn It 1

  • Calculate the probability of an event in a chance experiment.
  • Recognize the differences between theoretical and empirical probability.

What is Probability?

probability

Probability is a measure that is associated with how certain we are of outcomes of a particular experiment or activity.

An experiment is a planned operation carried out under controlled conditions. If the result is not predetermined, then the experiment is said to be a chance experiment. A chance experiment involves making observations in situations where there is uncertainty about which of two or more possible outcomes will result. Flipping one fair coin is an example of a chance experiment.

An outcome of a chance experiment is a result that can happen when you do a chance experiment.

sample space

The sample space of a chance experiment is the collection of all possible outcomes for the experiment.

The uppercase letter [latex]S[/latex] is typically used to denote the sample space.

Let’s see if we can simulate chance experiments to understand probability.

Steps to simulate coin flips:

Step 1: Select the Coin Flips tab.

Step 2: On How many flips do you want to generate in one simulation?, enter [latex]1[/latex], [latex]10[/latex], [latex]100[/latex], [latex]1000[/latex], and [latex]10,000[/latex], one after another.

Step 3: Select Generate.

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The proportions you found above from flipping a fair coin in [latex]1[/latex], [latex]10[/latex], [latex]100[/latex], [latex]1,000[/latex], and [latex]10,000[/latex] simulations were empirical probabilities.

empirical probabilities

The probability estimated from a chance experiment is called an empirical probability.